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TROPICAL DEPRESSION LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU OCT 04 2001
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT LORENA IS WEAKENING. STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE SHEARED THE CONVECTION WELL AWAY FROM
THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A
DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME. THE SHEARING ENVIRONMENT IS LIKELY TO
PERSIST...THEREFORE ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS LORENA DISSIPATING AFTER LANDFALL. HOWEVER...GIVEN
ITS CURRENT DISORGANIZED STATE...THE SYSTEM MIGHT DISSIPATE BEFORE
REACHING THE COAST.
INITIAL MOTION IS 360/09 KT. LORENA IS EXPECTED TO TURN GRADUALLY
TO THE RIGHT AHEAD OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH. THIS FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK...JUST A LITTLE FASTER.
ALTHOUGH INFRARED IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS
DIMINISHED...RAINFALL STILL IS SOMEWHAT OF A CONCERN...
PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS IN WHICH THE OROGRAPHY MIGHT ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
FORECASTERS PASCH/TICHACEK/MOLLEDA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/1500Z 19.0N 106.9W 30 KTS
12HR VT 05/0000Z 20.3N 106.5W 25 KTS
24HR VT 05/1200Z 22.0N 105.8W 25 KTS
36HR VT 06/0000Z 23.5N 105.0W 20 KTS...INLAND AND DISSIPATING
48HR VT 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED
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