Hurricane FRANCES
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HURRICANE FRANCES PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST SUN AUG 29 2004
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.1 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST WED SEP 1 2004
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
19.5N 57.4W 49 X X X 49 TJPS 180N 666W X X 1 11 12
19.9N 59.8W 10 25 X X 35 MDSD 185N 697W X X X 6 6
20.3N 62.3W X 13 14 1 28 TJSJ 184N 661W X X 3 11 14
TDPR 153N 614W X X 2 1 3 MDPP 198N 707W X X X 6 6
80400 157N 636W X X 1 4 5 MBJT 215N 712W X X X 8 8
TFFR 163N 615W X 2 4 2 8 MYMM 224N 730W X X X 3 3
TAPA 171N 618W X 4 7 2 13 ST CROIX VI X X 5 8 13
TKPK 173N 627W X 2 9 3 14 ST THOMAS VI X X 7 9 16
TNCM 181N 631W X 2 13 3 18 SAN JUAN PR X X 3 11 14
TISX 177N 648W X X 5 8 13 PONCE PR X X 1 11 12
TIST 183N 650W X X 7 9 16
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM MON
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2AM MON TO 2PM MON
C FROM 2PM MON TO 2AM TUE
D FROM 2AM TUE TO 2AM WED
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM WED
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER JARVINEN
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