Tropical Storm TOMAS
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TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1500 UTC TUE NOV 02 2010
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X X 1 6 11
TROP DEPRESSION 2 2 2 1 3 14 20
TROPICAL STORM 85 49 38 24 23 52 49
HURRICANE 13 49 60 75 73 28 20
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 11 42 46 43 33 21 16
HUR CAT 2 1 6 10 19 22 5 2
HUR CAT 3 X 1 3 10 14 2 1
HUR CAT 4 X X 1 2 4 X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X 1 X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 55KT 65KT 70KT 80KT 90KT 65KT 60KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
PT GALLINAS 34 2 4( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) 5(16) 1(17) X(17)
CURACAO 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 5(19)
MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6)
MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 5(26)
GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11)
GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 14(18) 11(29) 3(32)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 1(11)
GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
MONTEGO BAY 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 12(20) 3(23) 1(24)
MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
KINGSTON 34 X 4( 4) 5( 9) 10(19) 20(39) 6(45) X(45)
KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 4(16) X(16)
KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7)
LES CAYES 34 1 4( 5) 4( 9) 6(15) 28(43) 17(60) 1(61)
LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 12(26) 1(27)
LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) X(12)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 20(26) 21(47) 3(50)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) 1(17)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6)
GONAIVES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 14(17) 23(40) 4(44)
GONAIVES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 2(17)
GONAIVES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7)
CAPE BEATA 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) 16(24) 15(39) 4(43)
CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 1(14)
CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 23(28) 6(34)
PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11)
PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15(20) 3(23)
SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6)
SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
PONCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9)
SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8)
SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
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FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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