Tropical Storm HECTOR
ZCZC MIAPWSEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM HECTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082012
0900 UTC SUN AUG 12 2012
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HECTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 1 3 3 2 6 15
TROP DEPRESSION 14 15 21 16 14 22 36
TROPICAL STORM 85 76 66 63 58 57 45
HURRICANE 2 8 11 19 25 15 5
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 2 7 9 15 21 13 4
HUR CAT 2 X 1 1 3 3 2 1
HUR CAT 3 X X X 1 1 X X
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 40KT 45KT 45KT 50KT 55KT 50KT 40KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 54 20(74) 4(78) 1(79) 2(81) X(81) X(81)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 4 9(13) 3(16) 2(18) 1(19) X(19) 1(20)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ISLA CLARION 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 11(18) 17(35) 4(39) 1(40)
ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) X(11)
ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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