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HURRICANE ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062019
1500 UTC WED JUL 31 2019
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 147.5W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 45NE 40SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT.......110NE 90SE 50SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 180SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 147.5W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 146.9W
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 14.8N 149.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 15.3N 151.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.9N 153.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.4N 156.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 20SE 20SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 17.6N 160.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 10SE 0SW 30NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 19.5N 164.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 21.0N 166.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 147.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON
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