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Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
200 AM PDT Mon Oct 05 2020
Satellite images show the exposed low-level circulation well to the
southwest of any remaining deep convection. ASCAT data, however,
came in at 50-55 kt just before 06Z, which is higher than the
satellite presentation alone would suggest. The initial wind speed
is set to 55 kt on the basis of that data. Marie should weaken
during the next few days due to cold waters and strong shear.
Models are in very good agreement on a steady weakening, and little
change was made to the previous forecast. Remnant low status is
expected by 48 hours, and could even happen sooner based on current
trends.
The storm is moving west-northwestward at about 8 kt this morning.
A ridge to the north should steer Marie to the northwest or
west-northwest for the next couple of days, then the tropical
cyclone is likely to turn westward as it becomes a more shallow
feature. Model guidance has generally been adjusting to this
scenario, with a mid-latitude trough no longer expected to exert
much influence. The new forecast is shifted southward from 48
hours and beyond, near but a little slower than the model consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0900Z 20.8N 131.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 21.2N 132.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 21.8N 133.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 22.4N 135.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 22.9N 136.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 07/1800Z 23.2N 137.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/0600Z 23.2N 138.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 09/0600Z 23.0N 140.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Blake
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