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Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020
900 PM MDT Fri Oct 09 2020
Small, sporadic bursts of deep convection continue to pulse near
the center of Norbert, mainly in the western semicircle due to some
easterly vertical wind shear. Earlier satellite-derived wind data
suggested that Norbert's low-level circulation is becoming
elongated, and its structure will be reassessed overnight when new
scatterometer data becomes available. The initial intensity remains
25 kt with this advisory. The global models suggest Norbert will
open up into a trough and merge with the Intertropical Convergence
Zone (ITCZ) within the next 48-72 h. However, it could degenerate
into a remnant low even sooner if convection wanes. The official
forecast hangs on to pesky Norbert for a couple more days before
showing dissipation by 60 h.
Norbert is moving northwestward at 4 kt. A weak mid-level ridge to
the northeast of the cyclone will continue steering Norbert
slowly to the northwest for the next couple of days. The NHC track
forecast is very similar to the previous one and remains near the
track model consensus guidance.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/0300Z 14.0N 106.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 14.4N 107.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 14.9N 107.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 15.1N 107.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 15.3N 107.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Berg
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