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Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
1000 PM CDT Sat Nov 06 2021
The structure of the depression has not changed much during the past
several hours. Deep convection continues to pulse near the center
and in bands on the system's south side. Last-light visible
satellite images indicate that the circulation is quite stretched,
likely due to the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. In fact,
confidence in the center location is low and somewhat based on
continuity. Hopefully the next round of ASCAT data and microwave
images will provide a better look at how organized the circulation
is overnight. For now, the system is held as a 30-kt depression
following the Dvorak estimates and the earlier ASCAT data.
The depression continues to move just south of due west at 265/11
kt, and the system is at a very low latitude near 8N. This motion
is expected to continue overnight, but a general westward to
west-northwestward motion is likely to occur after that as the
system moves within the flow on the south side of a low- to
mid-level ridge. Except for the UKMET, which is a northern outlier,
most of the models show a similar solution with some speed
differences. The NHC track forecast is near the middle of the
guidance envelope and just an update of the previous one.
The system has been steady state since it formed a little more than
two days ago despite being in generally favorable large-scale
conditions. Some of the models suggest that the depression will
slowly gain strength during the next several days, which is possible
since the environmental conditions are forecast to be at least
marginally conducive. However, since the depression has not
strengthened yet and because the circulation might not be well
organized, the NHC intensity forecast remains on the low side of the
guidance envelope through the period.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/0300Z 8.3N 98.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 8.4N 100.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 8.8N 102.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 9.2N 105.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 9.6N 107.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 09/1200Z 10.0N 110.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 10.3N 112.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 10.6N 117.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 10.6N 123.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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