ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Hurricane Darby Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
1100 PM HST Mon Jul 11 2022
Darby has remained an impressive, compact hurricane with an
annular structure through the night. After a brief period of
eyewall warming, the cold cloud tops surrounding the clear eye now
range between -60 and -70 degrees Celsius. The initial intensity is
held at 120 kt, which is above the subjective Dvorak estimates of
102 kt and 115 kt based on the current presentation in satellite
imagery.
The hurricane is expected to remain in a relatively conducive
environment for the next 12 hours or so. Beyond that time frame,
Darby should encounter cooler waters and increasingly dry air
which will likely begin a general weakening trend. The system is
expected to rapidly weaken and become post-tropical when the
vertical wind shear increases significantly in a few days. The
official intensity forecast closely follows the previous advisory
and is slightly above the model consensus aids in the near-term
forecast.
Darby is moving westward at about 15 kt. A mid-level ridge to the
north should continue to steer the hurricane westward to
west-northwestward into the central Pacific basin. As the system
weakens to a more shallow circulation, it is expected to turn
westward following the low-level trade winds. The NHC track
forecast is slightly south of the previous prediction but is still
north of the model consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/0900Z 14.7N 128.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 14.8N 130.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 15.0N 132.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 15.5N 135.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 16.2N 137.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 14/1800Z 16.8N 140.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 17.2N 142.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 17.3N 148.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 17/0600Z 17.0N 155.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci
NNNN