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Hurricane Estelle Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
900 AM MDT Sun Jul 17 2022
Estelle remains a well-organized hurricane this morning. There
are very cold cloud tops over the core that range between -70 to
-80 degrees Celsius, numerous and distinct banding features, and a
rather symmetric and pronounced upper-level outflow. Subjective
Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB estimated Estelle at 65 and
77 kt, respectively, and given the slightly improved satellite
presentation, the initial intensity was nudged up to 75 kt.
Low to moderate vertical wind shear, high low-to-mid-tropospheric
humidities, and warm sea surface temperatures are likely to prevail
through tomorrow. This should allow for further intensification.
The official forecast is above the explicit model predictions
through 48 hours since there is potential for rapid intensification
according to the statistical guidance. Beyond two days, the NHC
intensity forecast follows the model consensus and weakens Estelle
as it encounters a more hostile thermodynamic and oceanic
environment.
The system is moving a little faster to the west-northwest, or
295/10 kt. Estelle is being steered by a mid-level ridge to its
north and northeast, and should continue to head in the same
general direction for the next several days. Late in the forecast
period, when the storm weakens, the cyclone should turn westward
and follow the shallow low-level flow. The official forecast is
nearly identical to the previous one and is closest to the
multi-model consensus, TVCE.
The main coastal impact from Estelle is expected to be rough surf
and the potential for rip currents along the coast of southwestern
and west-central Mexico as well as the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula during the next day or two.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/1500Z 15.7N 107.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 16.3N 108.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 17.0N 110.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 17.4N 113.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 18.0N 115.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 20/0000Z 18.8N 118.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 20/1200Z 19.8N 120.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 21/1200Z 21.6N 124.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 22/1200Z 22.6N 128.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci
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