ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Hurricane Frank Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
200 AM PDT Sat Jul 30 2022
Frank has continued to intensify since the previous advisory, with
very cold cloud tops noted over the eastern and southern portions
of the circulation. An eye has been occasionally present in the
geostationary images. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from
SAB and TAFB are 90 kt and 77 kt respectively, and the advisory
intensity is set at 80 kt. Frank has an expansive, well-defined
upper-level outflow pattern.
Microwave images suggest that the hurricane is beginning to
establish a better-defined inner core. This indicates that rapid
intensification (RI) is possible today. The various objective
indices show a 40 to 50 percent chance of RI during the next 12-24
h. Thus Frank could become a major hurricane soon and this is
reflected in the latest NHC forecast. Frank's strengthening is
likely to be rather short-lived however, since the hurricane will
be traversing significantly cooler waters within 48 hours. By 96
hours, the cyclone should be over 21 deg C SSTs so the forecast
shows Frank degenerating into a remnant low by that time. Around
the end of the forecast period, the GFS model shows some
rejuvenation of convection as the post-tropical cyclone interacts
with an upper-level trough to its northwest.
The hurricane is moving northwestward, or 310/10 kt. The steering
scenario appears to be fairly straightforward. Frank should
continue on a northwestward track for most of the forecast period
while it moves along the southwestern periphery of a large
mid-level ridge. The official track forecast has been nudged
a little to the north of the previous one mainly because of a
slight northward shift in the short-term track.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/0900Z 15.9N 115.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 16.9N 116.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 31/0600Z 18.2N 118.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 31/1800Z 19.5N 119.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 20.9N 121.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 01/1800Z 22.3N 122.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 23.4N 124.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 03/0600Z 25.5N 126.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 04/0600Z 28.0N 128.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Pasch
NNNN