ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102022
300 PM MDT Sun Aug 14 2022
Deep convection has persisted over the southwestern portion of the
depression's circulation today, however the center remains exposed
due to moderate to strong shear. The area of convection has less
coverage than it did earlier today and the subjective and objective
T-numbers from SAB and UW/CIMSS have lowered accordingly. A blend of
the various satellite intensity estimates still supports a 30 kt
initial intensity, but this could be generous. The ASCAT satellite
unfortunately missed the system so there is no scatterometer data
is help determine the system's intensity.
The system is not likely to strengthen as the shear that has been
plaguing the depression is forecast to increase tonight. By Monday,
gradual weakening is expected to begin as the system remains
affected by moderate to strong shear and even drier mid-level air
impinges on the cyclone. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS
and ECMWF models suggest the system will struggle to produce
organized deep convection by tomorrow and the forecast calls for the
depression to become a remnant low within 24 hours or so.
The depression has been meandering since the previous advisory, but
the longer-term motion appears to be just south of due west at
about 4 kt. As the depression weakens, it will be steered by a
low-level ridge to the north, and a slow westward to
west-southwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days.
The updated NHC track forecast is a little south of the previous
track due to the more southward initial position, but the official
forecast remains near the latest TCVE consensus model.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/2100Z 18.0N 113.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 18.0N 113.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 17.9N 114.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 16/0600Z 17.7N 114.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/1800Z 17.6N 115.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 17/0600Z 17.6N 116.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/1800Z 17.6N 117.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brown
NNNN