265 
AXNT20 KNHC 021650
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Jun 2 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall in Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Eastern Cuba: 
Active tropical waves will continue to provide increasing moisture
across the central and western Caribbean Sea for the next several
days. Meanwhile, a persistent upper-level trough over the western
Caribbean will sustain divergent flow across the area through 
Friday. Strong thunderstorms capable of producing dangerous 
lightning, heavy rain, and gusty winds are expected through 
Friday. The greatest risk for large accumulations of rainfall is 
from Tuesday through Friday. Heavy rain can cause flash flooding, 
especially in low- lying areas and hilly terrains. Flooding is 
also possible in areas of Hispaniola where the ground remains 
saturated from recent heavy rain events. Please refer to products 
from your local weather service for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 15W from 11N southward, moving
west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 09N 
between 15W and 20W.

Based on new data this morning, an Atlantic tropical wave is now 
analyzed along 29W from 09N southward. Forward motion is an
uncertain 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of this
tropical wave.

An Atlantic tropical wave is near 45W from 12N southward, moving 
west at 15-20 kt. Convection is described in the ITCZ section.

A tropical wave is crossing the Lesser Antilles and moving into
the Caribbean. At 1200 UTC, the axis was located along 62W, from
17N southward, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is in the NE Caribbean and Leeward Islands from 14N to
18N between 60W and 65W. 1200 UTC upper air sounding data from 
Barbados and Trinidad and Tobago aided in the analysis of the 
wave this morning.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 81W from 20N southward.
This wave is nearly stationary. Scattered showers are in the
vicinity of the wave axis. 1200 UTC upper air sounding data from
Kingston, San Andrés, and Grand Cayman aided in the analysis of 
the wave this morning.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border 
of Senegal and Guinea-Bissau near 13N17W, then curves 
southwestward to 07N20W. Segments of the ITCZ are from 07N20W to 
05N27W and from 05N33W to 05N50W and from 07N48W to 10N57W. These
segments are between the tropical waves moving across the basin.
Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 11N between 42W and
58W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure ridging prevails. SE winds are gentle to moderate
west of 90W, and light to gentle east of 90W. Seas are 3-5 ft
across the basin. 

For the forecast, the ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through
the next several days, supporting generally moderate to fresh E 
to SE winds in the western Gulf and gentle to moderate winds in 
the eastern Gulf, except for locally strong winds pulsing near the
northern and western portions of the Yucatan peninsula in the 
evenings. Hazy conditions due to agricultural fires over Central 
America and Mexico will continue for at least the next couple of 
days reducing visibility to 2-4 nm mainly over the western half of
the Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on 
a heavy rainfall event and the TROPICAL WAVES section. 

A surface trough near the Windward Passage is producing scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms across eastern Cuba, the 
Windward Passage, Jamaica, and Hispaniola. Fresh trades are
analyzed across the central and SW Caribbean, with seas of 6-8 
ft. Moderate to fresh trades are present in the eastern Caribbean 
with seas of 4-6 ft. Trades in the NW Caribbean are light to
gentle with 3-6 ft seas.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will support fresh to 
strong trade winds across the central Caribbean through early Mon,
with seas to around 8 ft. Fresh to strong winds are also expected
over portions of the western basin just over southern Jamaica 
adjacent waters as a tropical wave moves across the region through
this afternoon. The wave is also supporting scattered showers and
tstms between the Windward Passage and the coast of Nicaragua, 
which are forecast to continue and amplify the next couple of 
days. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N51W to 26N63W, where a stalled front
then continues to 23N71W, and a surface trough then continues to
the Windward Passage. The latest scatterometer data indicates NE
fresh winds north of the boundaries to 27N. Seas in these winds
have built to 6-7 ft. Scattered moderate convection is from 20N 
to 25N between 70W and 78W, including across the southern Bahamas,
Turks and Caicos, northern Hispaniola, and eastern Cuba. 1022 and
1021 mb high pressures are centered near 27N41W and 22N29W, 
respectively. Gentle to locally moderate trades prevail across the
remainder of the tropical Atlantic, with 4-7 ft sea in open
waters. Winds are light and variable near the aforementioned high
pressure centers.

For the forecast W of 55W, the front will become fully stationary
along 25N today and weaken into a surface trough by Mon evening. 
Energy associated with a convectively active tropical wave, 
currently over the W Caribbean will lift NNE and merge with this 
trough by Tue. Afterwards, the trough will drift eastward and move
to the central subtropical Atlantic waters Thu into Fri. Fresh SW
winds are forecast ahead of this trough as it crosses the north- 
central and then eastern offshore waters. 

$$
Mahoney