325 
AXPZ20 KNHC 020909
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Jun 02 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0845 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 97W, from 04N to 16N, moving
westward near 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is 
within 180 nm west of the wave from 08N to 13N. Active convection
is expected to continue with this system through the into early 
next week while it moves slowly westward, and well to the south 
of the coast of Mexico. However, development of this system 
appears unlikely. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from low pressure of 1007 mb 
over northern Colombia to 10N86W to 11N97W to 09N110W to 09N130W
to low pressure near 08N140W 1010 mb. Numerous moderate to 
strong convection is within 60 nm south of the trough between 
109W and 113W, also within 60 nm north of the trough between 
113W and 115W and from 10N to 12N between 135W and 138W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm south of the 
trough between 100W and 103W. Scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection is within 60 nm north of the trough between 
118W and 125W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm 
south of the trough between 93W and 96W, also south of the trough
within 60 nm of 07N105W and of 06N118W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends from high pressure centered well northwest of 
the region to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure 
gradient between the area of high pressure and a trough over the 
Gulf of California is supporting moderate to fresh northwesterly
winds across the Baja California waters extending southward to 
near the Revillagigedo Islands as indicated in an overnight ASCAT 
satellite data pass. Light to gentle winds prevail over the 
remainder of the discussion waters. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range 
in NW swell off Baja California Norte, and 6-7 ft off Baja 
California Sur. Elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico, seas 
are in the 4-6 ft range in southwest swell. Seas of 3 ft or less 
are over the Gulf of California. Hazy conditions persist off 
southern Mexico, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, due to 
agricultural fires over southern Mexico and Central America. 
Visibilities may decrease at times to around 5 nm.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW to N winds will prevail 
off the Baja California waters through the early part of 
the upcoming week. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail
across the open waters. Seas of 7 to 9 ft in NW swell are 
expected off of Baja California Norte through Mon. Hazy 
conditions, dense at times, may persist off southern Mexico, 
including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, due to agricultural fires over
S Mexico and Central America. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh NE winds were detected last night over the Gulf of 
Papagayo by an ASCAT satellite data pass. Since then, the 
winds there and over the Nicaragua offshore waters have become 
light to gentle in speeds and N to NE in direction. Gentle to 
moderate winds are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to 
locally moderate winds prevail S of the monsoon trough. Seas are 
in the 5-6 ft range N of the monsoon trough due to long-period S 
to SW swell and 4-5 ft south of the monsoon trough. Hazy 
conditions continues off the Central American coast due to 
agricultural fires in southern Mexico and Central America. 
Visibilities may decrease at times to around 5 nm or less. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate N to NE winds across the 
Papagayo region and Nicaragua offshore waters will become light 
and variable this afternoon. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds 
are expected for the next several days. Hazy skies from smoke 
caused by agricultural fires over Mexico and Central America may 
reduce visibilities over portions of the Central American 
offshore waters the next few days. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge extends from high pressure of 1030 mb that is centered 
well to the northwest of the discussion area near 32N146W to 
near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the
area of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon 
trough, and low pressure of 1010 mb near 08N140W, is supporting 
fresh to strong NE winds N of the monsoon trough to 25N and W of
120W as noted in overnight ASCAT satellite data passes. Seas 
with these winds are in the range of 8-10 ft. Gentle to moderate 
winds are generally elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Seas of 
6-8 ft in north to northeast swell prevail across all but the far
NW waters, where seas of 5-6 ft exist. Gentle to moderate winds 
and seas of 5-6 ft prevail S of the monsoon trough. 

For the forecast, the fresh to strong NE winds over the western
part are forecast to diminish to mostly fresh speeds Mon 
afternoon as the 1010 mb low pulls farther away from the 
discussion area allowing for the pressure gradient to relax
some. The aforementioned seas of 8-10 ft in NE swell will slowly
subside through late Mon. Otherwise, little change is expected 
to the current conditions over much of the area the next few 
days. The active convection along the monsoon trough will 
gradually shift westward and weaken through this afternoon.

$$
Aguirre