000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191548
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun May 19 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica/Nicaragua
near 11N86W to 15N102W to 08N115W. The ITCZ extends from 08N115W
to 05N128W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 06N to 15N between 90W to 107W and from 03N to 08N
between 125W and 140W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge is the main feature controlling the weather pattern across
the offshore forecast waters of Baja California. This is
supporting moderate to fresh NW to N winds N of Cabo San Lazaro,
and gentle to moderate winds between Cabo San Lazaro and Cabo 
San Lucas. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in mixed NW and SW swell within 
these winds. Elsewhere, including the Gulf of California, light 
to gentle winds prevail. Seas within the Gulf of California are 2
to 4 ft at the entrance of the Gulf and 2 ft or less elsewhere. Seas
of 5 to 7 ft in SW swell dominate the remainder of the Mexican 
offshore waters. Medium concentration of smoke, due to 
agricultural fires, may reduce visibility over southern Mexico.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to dominate the
offshore forecast waters of Baja California through at least
mid-week. This system, along with lower pressures over Mexico 
will continue to support moderate to fresh NW to N winds W of
the Baja California peninsula. Winds will increase to strong speeds
N of Cabo San Lazaro tonight through Mon night. NW swell is 
forecast to impact the outer forecast waters of Baja California 
Norte beginning on Mon. Seas are expected to build 8 to 9 ft N 
of Punta Eugenia through mid- week. Medium concentration of 
smoke, due to agricultural fires, may reduce visibility over 
southern Mexico. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected 
during the next 7 days. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Winds are pulsing moderate to fresh in the Gulf of Papagayo with
seas to 6 ft. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh winds are
noted S of 06N, particularly off the coast of Ecuador. Light to 
gentle winds are ongoing over the rest of the Central America 
offshore waters. Moderate seas in the 4 to 6 ft range due to 
long period SW swell are noted across the Central America
offshore waters, with 5 to 7 ft are noted off the South America
offshore waters. Scattered thunderstorms are noted off the coast
of Colombia and Panama, including the Gulf of Panama. 

For the forecast, the monsoon trough extending along 11N-12N will
help to induce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over
the Central America waters over the next couple of days. Winds 
will remain moderate or weaker early this week. Southerly swell 
propagating across the regional waters will support seas of 4 to 
6 ft. Seas are expecting to build to 6 to 8 ft across the waters
between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands later today through 
Mon night.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure, located N of the forecast region, extends a ridge
across the waters N of 15N and W of 110W. The pressure gradient 
between the ridge and lower pressure along the ITCZ is forcing 
moderate to fresh NE to E trades from 05N to 16N west of 125W. 
Seas are in the 8 to 9 ft range within these winds. Elsewhere 
under the influence of the ridge, gentle to moderate winds and 
seas of 6 to 7 ft prevail N of 16N to 31N. South of the ITCZ,
gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas are 6 to 9 ft within S and
SW swell.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control of the
weather pattern across the area N of 10N and W of 110W through 
at least mid-week. This will maintain moderate to fresh trade 
winds and moderate to rough seas along the southern periphery of
its associated ridge. The high pressure will strengthen later 
today into Mon, bringing some increase in winds across the 
offshore waters of Baja California, and in the trade wind zone. 
Long period SW swell will continue to propagate across the 
forecast waters today through mid-week. Seas of 8 to 10 ft will
begin to slowly decay tonight, and subside below 8 ft by Thu. 

$$
AReinhart