831 
AXNT20 KNHC 122239
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon May 13 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2225 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 06N22W. The
ITCZ extends from 06N22W to 04N36W and to 02N50W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed south of 09N and east of 33W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak high pressure dominates the Gulf of Mexico. A few showers and
isolated thunderstorms are affecting the nearshore waters of the
northern Gulf. Fresh to strong easterly winds are found off
northern Yucatan, while gentle to moderate E-SE winds prevail
elsewhere west of 86W. Seas in the area described are 3-5 ft. In 
the rest of the Gulf, light to gentle winds and slight seas are 
prevalent.

For the forecast, high pressure is rebuilding over the basin in the wake
of a now dissipated frontal system. An inverted trough may develop
over the western Gulf early this week where it may linger through
at least mid-week. Mainly moderate to fresh return flow will 
dominate the basin, pulsing to strong near the Yucatan Peninsula 
and Yucatan Channel. Meanwhile, haze due to agricultural fires in 
Mexico continues across most of the western Gulf and Bay of 
Campeche.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure gradient prevails across the Caribbean Sea,
sustaining moderate easterly trade winds over most of the basin. 
The exception is the Gulf of Honduras, where fresh to strong E-SE 
winds persist. Seas are slight to moderate across the basin, with 
peak seas to 8 ft in the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, high pressure over the central Atlantic will support
strong to near gale E to SE winds near the Gulf of Honduras,
moderate to fresh winds in the south-central and in the
southeastern Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere
tonight. The pressure gradient will tighten early this week, 
with fresh to strong trade winds expected in the S-central and in
the northwestern Caribbean, and moderate to fresh trade winds 
elsewhere. Seas will build next week as a result of the 
increasing winds. Meanwhile, haze due to agricultural fires in 
Central America continues across some areas of the northwestern 
Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends from 31N63W to a 1012 mb low pressure in
the NW Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of
23N and between the cold front and 53W. Moderate winds are present
north of 26N and between 58W and 70W. Seas in these waters are 4-7
ft. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail
elsewhere west of 55W.

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad 
1030 mb high pressure system centered to the west of the Azores. 
The pressure gradient between this ridge and relatively lower 
pressures in northwest Africa result in fresh to strong northerly 
winds north of 15N and east of about 20W, with the strongest 
winds off Morocco. Seas in the area described are in the 6 to 8 ft
range. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are 
prevalent.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned front will weaken 
as it reaches from near 31N59W the Central Bahamas by early Mon, 
then dissipating from near 27N55W to 22N65W by early Tue with high
pressure building in its wake. Fresh to strong southerly winds 
and building seas are forecast offshore N Florida by Tue ahead of 
another possible cold front. That front may reach from near 31N76W
to 27N80W by early Thu, weakening and stalling from 31N69W to 
near Fort Pierce, Florida by early Fri. 

$$
Delgado