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ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED AUG 18 1999 AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE AND SATELLITE DATA THIS EVENING INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION REMAINS VERY POORLY ORGANIZED...WITHOUT A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THERE IS LITTLE CONVECTION NEAR THE LOCATION WHERE THE AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A CENTER...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A MID LEVEL CENTER MAY BE REDEVELOPING TO THE NORTHEAST. INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...BUT IS ESTIMATED TO BE 280/2. THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS A RETROGRESSION OF THE MID- TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES...WITH A WEAKNESS EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHWEST GULF TO A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE GFDL AND AVN SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE MAY REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A SLOW WEST- NORTWESTWARD MOTION...BUT IF THE SYSTEM REFORMS TO THE NORTHEAST A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK IS LIKELY. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING SOME WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EXTREME WESTERN GULF. THE GLOBAL MODEL FORECAST SHOWS THE TROUGH MOVING OFF TO THE WEST AWAY FROM THE DEPRESSION WHICH MAY CREATE A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT BEYOND 24 HOURS. FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0300Z 19.6N 94.3W 30 KTS 12HR VT 19/1200Z 19.7N 94.7W 30 KTS 24HR VT 20/0000Z 19.9N 95.1W 30 KTS 36HR VT 20/1200Z 20.2N 95.5W 35 KTS 48HR VT 21/0000Z 20.5N 96.0W 40 KTS 72HR VT 22/0000Z 21.0N 97.0W 50 KTS NNNN