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TROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI AUG 20 1999
 
THE LATEST DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE
GAVE 999 MB AND A FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 60 KNOTS APPROXIMATELY 4 NMI
FROM THE CENTER.  THEREFORE THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY.  BRET CONTINUES TO LOOK BETTER IN THE INFRARED
PICTURES ALTHOUGH IT IS A SMALL SYSTEM. IT REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED
WITH THE SUGGESTION OF SOME BANDING DEVELOPING.
 
BRET IS EMBEDDED IN A WEAK STEERING FLOW AND REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY.  THE TRACK MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A VERY SLOW MOTION
DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS...THE BAM AND AVN MOVE OFF SLOWLY
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...THE GFDL SLOWLY WESTWARD AND THAN
SOUTH...WHILE THE NOGAPS MOVES SLOWLY EAST.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS
ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...WITH A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST.
 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF CONTINUES TO ENHANCE OUTFLOW FROM BRET.  THE LAST
RECON SHOWED THAT BRET CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND IS EXPECTED TO DO
SO AS PER THE SHIPS MODEL.  BRET IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE
STRENGTH BY 36 HR.
 
JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/0900Z 19.9N  94.6W    45 KTS
12HR VT     20/1800Z 19.9N  94.6W    50 KTS
24HR VT     21/0600Z 20.0N  95.0W    60 KTS
36HR VT     21/1800Z 20.3N  95.4W    65 KTS
48HR VT     22/0600Z 21.0N  96.0W    70 KTS
72HR VT     23/0600Z 22.0N  97.5W    70 KTS
 
 
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