HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI AUG 20 1999
 
SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE NOW 65 KT.  AIR FORCE AND
NOAA AIRCRAFT REPORTS THIS EVENING INDICATE THAT THE MINIMUM
PRESSURE IN BRET CONTINUES TO DROP...WITH THE MOST RECENT REPORT OF
981 MB...DOWN 11 MB IN 8 HOURS.  A GPS DROPWINDSONDE IN THE NORTH
EYEWALL REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF 62 KT.  WITH THE ASSUMPTION THAT
THE DROPSONDE DID NOT MEASURE THE ABSOLUTE PEAK WINDS IN THE
STORM...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 65 KT...MAKING BRET THE
FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 1999 ATLANTIC SEASON.  PRESSURE FALLS IN BRET
HAVE BEEN PRECEDING WIND INCREASES...AND WE EXPECT THAT BRET WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 355/8...A BIT FASTER TO THE NORTH.  MOST
GUIDANCE IS SHIFTED A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...THE
GFDL DRAMATICALLY SO.  THE AVN SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MID-LEVEL RIDGING NORTH OF BRET TO TURN THE HURRICANE TO THE
NORTHWEST.  OF INTEREST IS THE UKMET...WHICH IS TO THE RIGHT OF MOST
OF THE GUIDANCE AND SUGGESTS A LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN TEXAS.  THIS
MODEL HAS DONE FAIRLY WELL WITH THIS SYSTEM SO FAR AND CANNOT BE
DISCOUNTED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL INDICATES A LANDFALL ALONG
THE NORTH COAST OF MEXICO...BUT HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT TO THE
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM AN ARRAY OF
GPS DROPWINDSONDES.  THESE SONDES WERE RELEASED FROM A NOAA
P-3 AIRCRAFT DURING A RESEARCH MISSION OF THE HURRICANE RESEARCH
DIVISION.  THE NEW WIND RADII ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE NORTHWARD
TRANSLATION OF BRET.
 
ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF BRET OVER THE WEEKEND.

FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/0300Z 22.3N  94.5W    65 KTS
12HR VT     21/1200Z 23.4N  94.8W    70 KTS
24HR VT     22/0000Z 24.3N  95.6W    75 KTS
36HR VT     22/1200Z 24.7N  96.2W    85 KTS
48HR VT     23/0000Z 25.0N  97.0W    90 KTS
72HR VT     24/0000Z 25.5N  98.5W    70 KTS...INLAND
 
 
NNNN