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HURRICANE BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN AUG 22 1999
 
BRET HAS MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST MIDWAY BETWEEN
BROWNSVILLE AND CORPUS CHRISTI. ESTIMATED WINDS OF 90 TO 100 MPH
HAVE BEEN RECEIVED AT THE BROWNSVILLE FORECAST OFFICE IN KENNEDY
COUNTY NEAR WHERE THE CROSSED THE COAST. GPS DROPSONDE DATA FROM 
THE U.S. AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT BRET 
HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE LAST MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED WAS 952 MB...AND USING THE GPS WIND DATA
THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE REDUCED TO 100 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  FURTHER
WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES SLOWLY
INLAND WITH BRET FORECAST TO WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 
12 HRS.  

RECONNAISSANCE AND WSR-88D RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT BRET HAS SLOWED
DOWN SOMEWHAT DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS AND IS NOW ON A MORE WESTERLY
COURSE...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION OF 280/06 KT.  THE PHILOSOPHY
REGARDING TRACK OF HURRICANE BRET REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH THE MID-
LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD PROVIDE A WESTWARD
STEERING COMPONENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS 
A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72 HRS WITH A GRADUAL DECELERATION
...THIS IS IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH BAMD. 

AS A RESULT OF THE SLOW FORWARD MOTION...THE PRIMARY THREAT BRET
WILL POSE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE HEAVY RAINS. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. FURTHER
INFORMATION REGARDING THE RAINFALL THREAT CAN BE FOUND IN LOCAL 
NWS FORECAST OFFICE PRODUCTS.
   
THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED 
ON WIND ANALYSES FROM THE HURRICANE RESEARCH DIVISION.

GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/0300Z 26.9N  97.6W   100 KTS
12HR VT     23/1200Z 27.0N  98.4W    60 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     24/0000Z 27.1N  99.2W    30 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     24/1200Z 27.2N 100.0W    25 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     25/0000Z 27.2N 100.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     26/0000Z 27.2N 101.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
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