HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM EST FRI AUG 20 1999
 
WHILE THE CYCLONE IS STILL SHEARED AND SOMEWHAT POORLY ORGANIZED...
THE LOW LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME MORE INVOLVED WITH THE CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA REMAIN AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...SO
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM CINDY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/10. AS SEEN SIX HOURS AGO...THE AVN MODEL
KEEPS A LOW LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE THROUGH 72 HOURS...WITH
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE RIDGE. THE AVN MODEL
AND AVN-BASED GUIDANCE TURN THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST...
PARTLY IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH AND PARTLY IN RESPONSE TO A SECOND
LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER INITIALIZED IN THE AVN. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST DOES NOT TURN THE SYSTEM AS QUICKLY AS THE GUIDANCE...WITH
A GRADUAL CURVE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
 
THE AVN AND NOGAPS CONTINUE SUGGEST THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY SHEAR
WILL SLOWLY DECREASE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS
MODEL STILL HAS 20-30 KT SHEAR THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE PERIOD ON THE
ASSUMPTION THE SHEAR WILL ACTUALLY DECREASE.
 
BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/2100Z 13.6N  27.1W    35 KTS
12HR VT     21/0600Z 13.6N  28.6W    40 KTS
24HR VT     21/1800Z 13.9N  30.7W    45 KTS
36HR VT     22/0600Z 14.3N  33.1W    50 KTS
48HR VT     22/1800Z 15.0N  35.5W    55 KTS
72HR VT     23/1800Z 16.5N  40.5W    60 KTS
 
 
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