HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM EST SAT AUG 21 1999

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RESPECTFUL LOOKING BANDING TYPE PATTERN...
WITH A RATHER RAGGED LOOKING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KNOTS...WHICH IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA.  ALTHOUGH THE
SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING EASTERLY SHEAR AT THE PRESENT TIME...THIS
SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GUIDANCE. 

INITIAL MOTION IS 275/10.  AT LOW LEVELS...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A
SOLID RIDGE TO THE NORTH AT LOW LEVELS WHICH WOULD ALLOW A WEAK
SYSTEM TO CONTINUE THE GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION.  HOWEVER...AT MID
LEVELS THERE IS A WEAKNESS WHICH WOULD DICTATE A MORE WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY TRACK FOR A STRONGER CYCLONE.  THE CURRENT FORECAST IS
A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS...WITH THE GFDL AND UKMET TO THE
RIGHT AND THE NOGAPS TO THE LEFT OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK.  THIS
CURRENT TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.

MAYFIELD
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/1500Z 14.0N  29.9W    55 KTS
12HR VT     22/0000Z 14.1N  31.5W    60 KTS
24HR VT     22/1200Z 14.4N  33.8W    65 KTS
36HR VT     23/0000Z 14.8N  36.2W    65 KTS
48HR VT     23/1200Z 15.5N  38.7W    70 KTS
72HR VT     24/1200Z 17.5N  43.5W    70 KTS
 
 
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