HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM EST SUN AUG 22 1999

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT CINDY IS UNDER STRONG
EASTERLY SHEAR.  THE CENTER IS EXPOSED AND LOCATED WELL TO THE EAST
OF THE CONVECTION BUT THE SYSTEM...AS A WHOLE...HAS A LARGE CYCLONIC
ENVELOPE.   BASED ON THE WEAKENING STRUCTURE OF THE CLOUD PATTERN...
CINDY IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS AT THIS TIME.
BECAUSE CINDY IS MOVING SLOWLY AND THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
FORECAST TO CHANGE...RELATIVELY STRONG SHEAR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
SYSTEM.  AT THIS TIME...WINDS ARE KEPT AT 55 KNOTS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

THE CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING VERY SLOWLY WESTWARD...IT APPEARS THAT
THE SYSTEM IS STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL AFRICAN
MONSOON-TYPE FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALL FOR A SLOW WESTWARD
TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED THEREAFTER. THIS IS BASICALLY THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF
THE TRACK AND GLOBAL MODELS. 
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/2100Z 14.6N  33.2W    55 KTS
12HR VT     23/0600Z 14.8N  33.8W    55 KTS
24HR VT     23/1800Z 15.0N  35.3W    55 KTS
36HR VT     24/0600Z 15.0N  37.0W    55 KTS
48HR VT     24/1800Z 15.5N  39.0W    55 KTS
72HR VT     25/1800Z 16.5N  45.0W    55 KTS
 
 
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