HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE AUG 24 1999
 
THE CENTER IS NOT WELL DEFINED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT IS
ESTIMATED NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. 
INITIAL INTENSITY IS 55 KNOTS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB.  IF THE CENTER IS ACTUALLY MORE CENTRALLY
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE OVERCAST THAN THOUGHT...THE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE WOULD BE HIGHER.  RELATIVELY LIGHT SHEAR IS FORECAST ALONG
THE TRACK AND THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM.   THEREFORE...
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/14.  THERE IS A LITTLE WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF CINDY...SO A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR EVEN NORTHWEST SHOULD CONTINUE.  OUR CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS...AND IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL.  IF THE RIDGE WEAKENS SUBSTANTIALLY...THE
ACTUAL TRACK COULD BE MORE TO THE RIGHT OF OUR CURRENT TRACK.

MAYFIELD
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/0300Z 17.9N  44.5W    55 KTS
12HR VT     25/1200Z 18.4N  46.7W    60 KTS
24HR VT     26/0000Z 19.7N  49.6W    65 KTS
36HR VT     26/1200Z 21.5N  52.6W    70 KTS
48HR VT     27/0000Z 23.7N  55.5W    75 KTS
72HR VT     28/0000Z 28.0N  61.5W    85 KTS
 
 
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