HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU AUG 26 1999
 
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND 80 KT WINDS
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF DENNIS...ONCE AT FLIGHT LEVEL AND ONCE ON
A DROPSONDE. THE LAST REPORTED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 995 MB.
DENNIS IS THUS UPGRADED TO A 65 KT HURRICANE. THE HURRICANE STILL
APPEARS RAGGED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH THE LOW LEVEL CENTER NEAR
THE WEST EDGE OF THE CONVECTION.

BASED ON THE LAST TWELVE HOURS OF RECONNAISSANCE FIXES...THE INITIAL
MOTION IS 300/4. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION OR
THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. ALL GUIDANCE...
SAVE FOR THE BAMD AND BAMM WHICH CALL FOR A CONTINUING WEST-
NORTHWEST MOTION...HAVE DENNIS RESPONDING TO THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH
WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH AND SOME ACCELERATION DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFDL IS THE FASTEST MOVING THE CYCLONE
NORTHWARD...BRINGING IT TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY 72 HOURS.
GIVEN HOW DENNIS HAS BEEN RELUCTANT TO MOVE AS FAST AS THE GUIDANCE
HAS SUGGESTED FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MORE
CONSERVATIVE AND IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

WHILE THE AVIATION...NOGAPS...AND SHIPS MODELS INDICATE LIGHT SHEAR
OVER THE SYSTEM...THE SHEARED APPEARANCE AND CIRRUS CLOUDS BLOWING
EASTWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTER SUGGEST THE ENVIRONMENT
IS NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE AS THE MODELS THINK. SINCE DENNIS HAS
INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS
FOR CONTINUED SLOW INTENSIFICATION.

RECONNAISSANCE DATA SHOW A VERY ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD AND THEY ARE
THE BASIS FOR THE ADJUSTED INITIAL WIND RADII. THE FORECAST WIND
RADII ARE A BLEND OF THE INITIAL CONDITIONS AND THE ANTICIPATION OF
THE WIND FIELD BECOMING MORE SYMMETRIC AS DENNIS INTENSIFIES.
 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES TO BRING DENNIS FAR ENOUGH
WEST TO POSE A THREAT TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S...ESPECIALLY THE
CAROLINAS...LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.
 
BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/0900Z 23.9N  73.3W    65 KTS
12HR VT     26/1800Z 24.2N  73.8W    70 KTS
24HR VT     27/0600Z 24.9N  74.8W    75 KTS
36HR VT     27/1800Z 26.0N  76.1W    80 KTS
48HR VT     28/0600Z 27.5N  77.5W    85 KTS
72HR VT     29/0600Z 31.0N  78.0W    95 KTS
 
 
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