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HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU AUG 26 1999
 
HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT
DENNIS IS NOT A WELL ORGANIZED HURRICANE WITH A LOW-LEVEL CENTER
THAT IS NOT WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION. IN
ADDITION...AS HAS BEEN OBSERVED FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THE
LOW CLOUDS ARE MOVING AWAY FROM THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE...IMPLYING A LACK OF LOW-LEVEL INFLOW. SATELLITE
CLOUD WIND VECTOR ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS THAT THERE IS NORTHWEST
FLOW...AT SOME HIGH LEVEL...DISRUPTING THE CLOUD PATTERN.  ALL OF
THE ABOVE SUGGEST THAT DENNIS IS NOT STRENGTHENING SIGNIFICANTLY.
BOTH GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS INSIST ON FORECASTING STRENGTHENING AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPS OVER DENNIS.  CONSEQUENTLY...THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST MAKES DENNIS A 95 KNOT-HURRICANE BY 72
HOURS.
 
THE HURRICANE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 6 KNOTS.  LATEST GLOBAL
AND TRACK MODEL RUNS..CONSISTENTLY...CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE
TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
STEERED DENNIS NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS.  THIS
HAS BEEN THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO PROVIDED SINCE YESTERDAY AND
CONTINUES TO BE TODAY. ALTHOUGH...THE 72-HOUR OFFICIAL FORECAST
POSITION IS VERY CLOSE TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.  ALL INTERESTS
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
AVILA 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/1500Z 24.3N  74.0W    65 KTS
12HR VT     27/0000Z 24.7N  74.9W    70 KTS
24HR VT     27/1200Z 25.5N  76.0W    75 KTS
36HR VT     28/0000Z 27.5N  77.5W    80 KTS
48HR VT     28/1200Z 29.5N  78.0W    85 KTS
72HR VT     29/1200Z 33.5N  78.5W    95 KTS
 
 
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