HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL STORM DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  47
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT SEP 04 1999
 
WSR-88D DATA FROM MOREHEAD CITY INDICATE THAT DENNIS IS BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...WITH REFLECTIVITY DATA INDICATING A
FORMATIVE EYEWALL AND DOPPLER WINDS SHOWING 65 KT ALOFT AND AN INNER
CORE FORMING. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE INCREASED TO 55 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY.

THE RADAR DATA ALSO INDICATES THAT DENNIS IS MOVING FASTER WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION OF 315/8. LARGE SCALE MODELS AND NHC HURRICANE
GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWEST TRACK FOR 24 TO 36
HOURS FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL RECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...ALTHOUGH FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE.  
 
WITH THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION AND PASSAGE OVER THE GULF STREAM...
DENNIS IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO A 65 KT HURRICANE BY LANDFALL IN
12 HOURS. THE CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL...BUT DUE TO THE
LARGE SIZE AND GENERALLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT THE
WEAKENING MAY BE SLOWER THAN NORMAL. DENNIS IS FORECAST TO BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS.

BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     04/1500Z 34.1N  75.6W    55 KTS
12HR VT     05/0000Z 34.9N  76.4W    65 KTS
24HR VT     05/1200Z 36.4N  77.3W    55 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     06/0000Z 38.3N  77.8W    45 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     06/1200Z 40.5N  77.5W    35 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     07/1200Z 45.5N  74.5W    25 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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