HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM EST TUE AUG 24 1999
 
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INVESTIGATED THE SMALL DISTURBANCE
EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND FOUND A WELL DEFINED AND TIGHT LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION OF 1004 MB AND 55-KNOTS WINDS. THEREFORE THE
SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM EMILY.  

EMILY IS A SMALL STORM AND IS UNDER SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WHICH
IS FORECAST TO RELAX.  SHIPS MODELS MAKES EMILY A 92-KNOT HURRICANE
BY 60 HOURS.  THEREFORE A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS INDICATED IN
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST.

EMILY IS MEANDERING AT THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT MUCH LARGER
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING CINDY IS CUTTING THE
EASTERLY STEERING CURRENTS.  HOWEVER...MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS
FORECAST EMILY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND BRING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
TO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN BY 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
MOVES EMILY VERY SLOWLY DURING THE FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS AND THEN
INCREASES THE FORWARD SPEED. WATCHES AND WARNING FOR A PORTION OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES ARE NOT RECOMMENDED AT THIS TIME BUT THEY
PROBABLY BE DISCUSSED TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.  ALL INTERESTS IN THE
LESSER ANTILLES...PRIMARILY THE NORTHERN PORTION...SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.  
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/2100Z 11.9N  54.0W    55 KTS
12HR VT     25/0600Z 12.2N  54.8W    55 KTS
24HR VT     25/1800Z 12.7N  55.7W    60 KTS
36HR VT     26/0600Z 13.5N  57.0W    65 KTS
48HR VT     26/1800Z 14.0N  58.5W    70 KTS
72HR VT     27/1800Z 16.0N  61.0W    80 KTS
 
 
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