HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 05 1999
 
THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS EVENING...BUT MY BEST GUESS
IS THAT THE INITIAL MOTION IS 345/04.  THE 18Z AVIATION MODEL SHOWS
RATHER WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AROUND THE DEPRESSION FOR THE NEXT 72
HOURS.  THE 18Z GFDL MODEL SHOWS A SLOW CYCLONIC LOOP FOR 72 HOURS
WHILE THE BAM MODELS...UKMET AND LBAR SHOW A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWEST
MOTION.  THE HPC FORECAST IS ALSO SLOW NORTH-NORTHWEST.  THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO HPC BUT ABOUT A DEGREE FURTHER
NORTH.

THERE IS ALMOST NO DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER WHICH ALLOWS THE
FORECAST TO BE FOR VERY SLOW STRENGTHENING.  ALSO THE PROXIMITY TO
LAND COULD LIMIT THE STRENGTHENING PROCESS.  BUT THE SHIPS MODEL
DOES CALL FOR STRENGTHENING BASED ON THE WARM SSTS.

LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/0300Z 22.2N  96.7W    25 KTS
12HR VT     06/1200Z 22.8N  96.9W    30 KTS
24HR VT     07/0000Z 23.6N  97.1W    35 KTS
36HR VT     07/1200Z 24.0N  97.8W    35 KTS
48HR VT     08/0000Z 24.5N  98.5W    25 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     09/0000Z DISSIPATED INLAND 
 
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