HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT SEP 11 1999
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT THE STRONG TROPICAL
WAVE SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND
IS NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB ARE 30 AND 25 KT RESPECTIVELY...AND THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE LARGE DEPRESSION
HAS GOOD BANDING BUT NOT MUCH CONVECTION NEAR ITS POORLY DEFINED
CENTER.  OUTFLOW IS CURRENTLY RESTRICTED ON THE EAST SIDE DUE TO
SOME MODEST EASTERLY SHEAR...BUT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL FORECASTS
THE SHEAR TO BE LOW AND BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO HURRICANE STRENGH
WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INITIAL LOCATION IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE ILL-DEFINED CENTER...BUT
THE MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 280/16.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SWIFT
WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LBAR AND MEDIUM BAM.
 
FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     11/1500Z 12.3N  24.7W    30 KTS
12HR VT     12/0000Z 12.6N  27.1W    40 KTS
24HR VT     12/1200Z 13.0N  30.3W    45 KTS
36HR VT     13/0000Z 13.6N  33.5W    55 KTS
48HR VT     13/1200Z 14.0N  37.0W    65 KTS
72HR VT     14/1200Z 14.5N  44.5W    75 KTS
 
 
NNNN