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TROPICAL STORM GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 12 1999

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT GERT IS STRENGTHENING. THE CLOUD
PATTERN CONSISTS OF WELL DEFINED HOOKING BANDS AND EXCELLENT
OUTFLOW. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 3.0 AND 3.5 FROM SAB AND TAFB. INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 55 KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE
IS AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE MOVING WESTWARD WITH THE STORM...AND
SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR INTENSIFICATION. GERT IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SOONER.
 
GERT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG DEEP LAYER OF EASTERLIES...
ACCOMPANIED BY A TYPICAL STRONG 700 MB JET TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE.  CONSEQUENTLY THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING WEST ABOUT 18
KNOTS. BECAUSE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
PLACE...A CONTINUED WESTWARD TRACK IS INDICATED WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED.  MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING GERT
WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS.  THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE BECAUSE THE SMALL NORTHWARD
ADJUSTMENT OF THE INITIAL POSITION.
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     12/2100Z 14.6N  34.7W    55 KTS
12HR VT     13/0600Z 14.8N  37.5W    65 KTS
24HR VT     13/1800Z 15.0N  41.0W    75 KTS
36HR VT     14/0600Z 15.0N  44.0W    85 KTS
48HR VT     14/1800Z 15.5N  47.5W    90 KTS
72HR VT     15/1800Z 16.0N  53.0W    95 KTS
 
 
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