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HURRICANE GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  42
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 1999

LATEST FIXES SHOW THAT THE MOTION IS NOW NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...AT A
FASTER PACE...AROUND 15 KNOTS.  A CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
MOVEMENT...AND ACCELERATION...IS EXPECTED AS GERT IS STEERED BY THE
FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC LONGWAVE TROUGH. 
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...TAKES GERT
NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND.  AFTER THAT TIME THE SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL.

CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 90 KNOTS.  GERT IS SO LARGE AND STRONG
THAT IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE CIRCULATION TO WIND DOWN. 
NONETHELESS...IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE DROPPING BELOW
HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

AFTER COORDINATION WITH THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BERMUDA...THE
HURRICANE WARNING IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.  THE
LATTER WARNING WILL BE EFFECTIVE ONLY UNTIL 2300 UTC AS THE FRINGES
OF GERTS CIRCULATION DEPARTS THE AREA.
 
PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/2100Z 33.4N  61.9W    90 KTS
12HR VT     22/0600Z 36.0N  60.7W    85 KTS
24HR VT     22/1800Z 40.0N  58.5W    80 KTS
36HR VT     23/0600Z 44.0N  55.5W    70 KTS
48HR VT     23/1800Z 48.0N  52.0W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     24/1800Z 57.0N  44.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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