HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 19 1999
 
ALTHOUGH THE LLCC IS STILL LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEVELOP...THE PRESSURE IS
NOW 1002 MB...AND THE OUTFLOW TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE
CENTER CONTINUES TO IMPROVE.  AS THE RECON PASSED THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE SYSTEM IT RECORDED MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS
OF 56 KNOTS.  A SHORT TIME LATER AT 23Z A SHIP DIRECTLY BELOW THE
RECON OBS REPORTED 180/40 AND 1004 MB.  ALSO...BUOY 42003 LOCATED
ABOUT 40 NMI EAST OF THE SHIP HAS REPORTED MAXIMUM WINDS OF UP TO 33
KNOTS.  AT THIS TIME THE SYSTEM WILL BE UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM
HARVEY.
 
AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CONFIRMED THAT THE SYSTEM
HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY.  MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN LINE WITH
THE SYNOPTIC REASONING WHICH IS.. A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.  THIS SHOULD
TURN THE CYCLONE EAST-NORTHEAST AND MOVE IT ACROSS FLORIDA.  THE
OFFICIAL TRACK IS FOR A GRADUAL MOTION TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST
WITH AN ACCELERATION IN THE LATER FORECAST PERIODS.  THIS TRACK IS
SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

BECAUSE OF THE FORECAST TRACK A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL BE
REQUIRED ON THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA.  RESIDENTS OF THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN GULF COAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.
 
JARVINEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/0300Z 26.1N  87.6W    40 KTS
12HR VT     20/1200Z 26.2N  87.5W    45 KTS
24HR VT     21/0000Z 26.7N  86.7W    50 KTS
36HR VT     21/1200Z 27.6N  85.0W    50 KTS
48HR VT     22/0000Z 28.8N  82.3W    45 KTS
72HR VT     23/0000Z 34.0N  71.0W    45 KTS
 
 
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