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TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 20 1999

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION.  THE STORM IS PROBABLY ALSO ENTRAINING SOME DRIER AIR
FROM THE NORTHWEST AS WELL.  THE GFDL MODEL CONTINUES TO INDICATE
THAT SOME STRENGTHENING WILL OCCUR BUT OTHER GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE
NCEP GLOBAL MODEL...SUGGESTS WEAKENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
INDICATES ONLY A SLIGHT ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH.

ACCORDING TO RECONNAISSANCE AND SATELLITE FIXES...THE MOVEMENT HAS
BEEN A BIT ERRATIC OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND INITIAL MOTION IS
REDUCED TO 075/5.  HOWEVER...BASED ON THE STEERING CURRENT IMPLIED
BY THE LARGER-SCALE FLOW...ACCELERATION TOWARD THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST IS FORECAST...SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  

SHIP REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE EXTENT OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
IS LARGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED...ABOUT 150 N MI OVER THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.  THIS MEANS THAT THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND
WATCH NEEDS TO BE EXTENDED FARTHER SOUTH.
 
PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/2100Z 27.0N  85.4W    50 KTS
12HR VT     21/0600Z 27.4N  84.2W    55 KTS
24HR VT     21/1800Z 27.9N  82.2W    60 KTS
36HR VT     22/0600Z 29.5N  79.0W    50 KTS
48HR VT     22/1800Z 32.5N  74.0W    60 KTS
72HR VT     23/1800Z 39.0N  64.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
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