HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE SEP 21 1999
 
RECONNAISSANCE FIXES FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS INDICATE THAT HARVEY HAS TURNED TO
THE SOUTHEAST.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 130/9.  HARVEY IS NOT WELL
ORGANIZED...WITH MOST OF THE HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THE TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST...COUPLED WITH
THE LOCATION OF THE BAD WEATHER...NECESSITATES THE ISSUANCE OF
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. 
MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT HARVEY WILL TURN TO THE EAST THEN
NORTHEAST AND RAPIDLY ACCELERATE IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING MID
LATITUDE TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY BASED ON THE CURRENT MOTION...AND HAS SOMEWHAT
LESS ACCELERATION AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE MORE
SOUTHERLY INITIAL TRACK.
 
BASED ON RECENT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS FROM THE RECON AIRCRAFT...THE
INTIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 45 KT.  GIVEN THE CURRENT ASYMMETRIC
STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
ANTICIPATED PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/0900Z 26.4N  83.5W    45 KTS
12HR VT     21/1800Z 25.7N  82.2W    45 KTS
24HR VT     22/0600Z 26.6N  79.1W    45 KTS
36HR VT     22/1800Z 29.1N  75.4W    45 KTS
48HR VT     23/0600Z 33.0N  71.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     24/0600Z 43.0N  59.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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