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TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE SEP 21 1999
 
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF HARVEY
IS POORLY DEFINED AND IS LOCATED WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN
CONVECTION.  HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION IS VERY STRONG AND BOTH
DOPPLER AND SATELLITE ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ARE ABOUT 10 INCHES.  TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE TROPICAL STORM.
 
HARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST ABOUT 10 KNOTS BUT A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF HARVEY WILL CROSS THE
PENINSULA PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS PRIMARILY OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE KEYS AND THEN SPREADING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS.
 
THE TROPICAL STORM IS ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES AND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME EXTRATROPICAL. HARVEY
SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/1500Z 25.8N  82.0W    45 KTS
12HR VT     22/0000Z 25.5N  80.8W    40 KTS
24HR VT     22/1200Z 26.5N  78.5W    40 KTS
36HR VT     23/0000Z 31.0N  72.5W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     23/1200Z 35.5N  66.5W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     24/1200Z 45.5N  51.5W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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