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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE OCT 05 1999
 
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A  POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE PATTERN AND
LITTLE EVIDENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE.  ON A LARGER SCALE...THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE LOCATED
AT THE SOUTHWEST END OF A FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM MEXICO TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES.  IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE MOTION IS NEARLY
STATIONARY.  THE UKMET AND AVIATION MODELS SHOW A MOSTLY NORTHWARD
DRIFT IN THREE DAYS AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO NEW MEXICO. 
THE NOGAPS SHOWS LITTLE MOTION IN THREE DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS STATIONARY FOR 36 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE
NORTH.
 
WITH NO EVIDENCE OF STRENGTHENING AT HAND...THE WIND SPEED IS KEPT
AT 30 KNOTS THROUGH 72 HOURS.
 
RAIN IS THE IMPORTANT WEATHER FACTOR WITH SEVERAL LARGE CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS OVER PORTIONS OF MEXICO.
 
LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/0900Z 19.0N  94.5W    30 KTS
12HR VT     05/1800Z 19.0N  94.5W    30 KTS
24HR VT     06/0600Z 19.0N  94.5W    30 KTS
36HR VT     06/1800Z 19.0N  94.5W    30 KTS
48HR VT     07/0600Z 20.0N  95.0W    30 KTS
72HR VT     08/0600Z 21.0N  95.0W    30 KTS
 
 
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