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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE OCT 05 1999

THE TROPICAL WAVE WHICH CROSSED DAKAR ABOUT 5 OR 6 DAYS AGO AND HAS
BEEN MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS NOW TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWELVE.   THIS IS BASED ON DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH
TAFB AND SAB...EARLIER SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND CLOUD WIND VECTORS FROM
THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN.  THE DEPRESSION IS IN A FORMATIVE STAGE
AND BOTH THE INITIAL LOCATION AND MOTION ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. BEST
ESTIMATE IS 290/06.   A WEAKENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MAY
INDUCE A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK IN THE SHORT TERM BUT GLOBAL
MODELS...PRIMARILY NOGAPS...DEVELOP A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.   THIS MAY KEEP THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST OR EVEN TURN IT MORE TO THE WEST
BY 72 HOURS.  BY THEN...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WOULD BE TOO FAR NORTH
TO THREATEN THE LESSER ANTILLES. 
 
SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BE A TROPICAL STORM
IN 12 HOURS OR SO AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
HOWEVER...WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MAY INHIBIT THE
STRENGTHENING.  
 
AVILA
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/0300Z 14.5N  45.1W    30 KTS
12HR VT     06/1200Z 14.8N  46.1W    35 KTS
24HR VT     07/0000Z 15.5N  47.5W    40 KTS
36HR VT     07/1200Z 16.5N  48.5W    45 KTS
48HR VT     08/0000Z 17.5N  49.5W    50 KTS
72HR VT     09/0000Z 19.0N  52.0W    60 KTS
 
 
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