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TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED OCT 13 1999
 
SATELLITE IMAGES AND RAOB OBSERVATIONS FROM GRAND CAYMAN INDICATE
THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN HAS BECOME
MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS NOW TROPICAL STORM IRENE. A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL PROVIDE BETTER INFORMATION ON THE LOCATION
AND THE INTENSITY OF IRENE LATER TODAY.  THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
SQUALLS COVERS A LARGE AREA OF WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE OUTFLOW IS
EXCELLENT. CONVENTIONAL TOOLS INDICATE THAT IRENE COULD REACH
HURRICANE STATUS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.  SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS ALSO
SUGGEST STRENGTHENING. 

INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN SINCE IRENE IS IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGE
BUT BEST ESTIMATE IS 345/7. IRENE SHOULD MOVE ON A GENERAL SLOW
NORTH NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWARD TRACK TROUGH 48 HOURS. 
THEREAFTER...AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND IRENE COULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATE. THIS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND UK
MODELS AND CLIMATOLOGY. WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
ACCORDINGLY FOR CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
ALL INTEREST IN FLORIDA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH FLROIDA AND THE KEYS
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEVELOPING TROPICAL STORM
IRENE.

AVILA
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     13/1500Z 18.5N  83.5W    35 KTS
12HR VT     14/0000Z 19.0N  84.0W    45 KTS
24HR VT     14/1200Z 20.0N  84.5W    55 KTS
36HR VT     15/0000Z 21.5N  84.5W    65 KTS
48HR VT     15/1200Z 23.0N  84.5W    70 KTS
72HR VT     16/1200Z 26.0N  83.5W    70 KTS
 
 
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