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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN OCT 17 1999

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS DEVELOPED BANDING FEATURES...A BROAD
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND AN EXCELLENT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.  SHIP
MTQU3...LOCATED NORTH OF THE DEVELOPING CENTER REPORTED 20-KNOT
EASTERLY WINDS AND 1006 MB PRESSURE.  THIS IS ENOUGH TO BEGIN
ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN.   BECAUSE THE DEPRESSION
IS IN THE FORMATIVE STAGE...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS POORLY
ORGANIZED.  THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN BOTH INITIAL
POSITION AND LOCATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING
SINCE THERE WILL BE A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND SHIPS MODEL BRINGS
THE DEPRESSION TO A 75-KNOT HURRICANE BY 72 HOURS. 

INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BUT BEST ESTIMATE IS 275/10.
THERE IS A STRONG 500-MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING WESTWARD
OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH WESTWARD STEERING TO
BRING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY 72 HOURS.
THIS IS THE SOLUTION PRODUCED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS EXCEPT
NOGAPS WHICH TURN THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD BEFORE REACHING THE LESSER
ANTILLES.  WITH THIS TRACK IN MIND...A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AS EARLY AS TONIGHT.

NOTE: GLOBAL MODELS ONCE AGAIN DID AN EXCELLENT JOB IN FORECASTING
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION WELL IN ADVANCED. 
 
AVILA 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     17/2100Z 10.0N  51.5W    30 KTS
12HR VT     18/0600Z 10.0N  53.2W    35 KTS
24HR VT     18/1800Z 10.5N  55.3W    45 KTS
36HR VT     19/0600Z 11.0N  57.5W    55 KTS
48HR VT     19/1800Z 12.0N  60.0W    65 KTS
72HR VT     20/1800Z 14.5N  63.5W    75 KTS
 
 
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