HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN OCT 17 1999

A SHIP WITH CALL SIGN C6QG4 LOCATED AT 10.3N 53.1W...NOT TOO FAR
WEST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER AT 00Z...REPORTED NE WINDS OF ONLY 7
KNOTS WITH A PRESSURE OF 1007.5.  HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH BETTER-DEFINED
BANDING FEATURES.  THE DEPRESSION IS NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH.  UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW OVER THE CYCLONE
IS IMPRESSIVE AND A WESTERLY JET TO THE NORTHEAST IS LIKELY
ASSISTING THIS OUTFLOW.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME
AS THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND SHOWS HURRICANE INTENSITY BY 48 HOURS. 

AS IS TYPICAL FOR A SYSTEM IN THE EARLY STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT...THE
CENTER FIXES SHOW A LOT OF SCATTER.  MY ESTIMATE FOR INITIAL MOTION
IS 275/10.  NOT MUCH CHANGE IS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST. 
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST
NORTH ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS SHOULD STEER
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTO THE EXTREME EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  A GRADUAL TURN TO THE RIGHT IS INDICATED BY
MOST OF THE OBJECTIVE TRACK GUIDANCE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE U.K. MET. OFFICE MODEL AND THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL 
MODEL NHC98.

A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH FOR ALL OR A PORTION OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE NEXT ADVISORY.

PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     18/0300Z 10.0N  52.5W    30 KTS
12HR VT     18/1200Z 10.3N  54.3W    35 KTS
24HR VT     19/0000Z 10.9N  56.5W    45 KTS
36HR VT     19/1200Z 11.7N  58.7W    55 KTS
48HR VT     20/0000Z 12.5N  60.5W    65 KTS
72HR VT     21/0000Z 15.0N  64.0W    75 KTS
 
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