HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL STORM JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON OCT 18 1999
 
THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
THIS MORNING WITH WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES AND CLOUD TOPS TO
-80C JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM
TAFB REFLECTS THIS...AND THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM
JOSE WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT.  THE SYSTEM HAS A VERY
SYMMETRIC APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW OVER THE CYCLONE REMAINS IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT WITH THE WESTERLY OUTFLOW JET.  WITH NO
IMMEDIATELY IDENTIFIABLE HINDRANCES TO FURTHER STRENGTHENING...
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS HURRICANE INTENSITY BY
36 HOURS.  
 
THE SYSTEM IS STILL IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGES AND THE CENTER LOCATION
REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.  THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION
IS 280/9.  A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY FIRED JUST NORTH
OF THE CENTER AND MULTI-CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING HINTS
THAT THE CENTER MAY BE REFORMING CLOSER TO THIS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER.
THUS...THE CENTER MAY HAVE TO BE RE-LOCATED LATER THIS MORNING WHEN
VISIBLE IMAGERY BECOMES AVAILABLE. ALSO...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE JOSE THIS
AFTERNOON. 

OTHERWISE...THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK
PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AS A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC
ANTICYCLONE DEPICTED IN THE GLOBAL MODELS OVER THE SOUTHWEST NORTH
ATLANTIC SHOULD STEER JOSE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 12
HRS WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THEREAFTER.  THIS WILL
MOVE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTO THE EXTREME EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO 
THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL MODEL NHC98...AND REPRESENTS A SLIGHT
RIGHTWARD ADJUSTMENT FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK PROMPTS THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE
WATCH FOR BARBADOS...AND HAS BEEN COORDINATED WITH THE BARBADOS
WEATHER SERVICE.  A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY.  ALL INTERESTS IN 
LESSER ANTILLES ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF 
THIS DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE.
 
GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     18/0900Z 10.4N  53.2W    35 KTS
12HR VT     18/1800Z 10.6N  54.6W    45 KTS
24HR VT     19/0600Z 11.2N  56.3W    55 KTS
36HR VT     19/1800Z 11.9N  58.3W    65 KTS
48HR VT     20/0600Z 13.0N  60.5W    70 KTS
72HR VT     21/0600Z 15.5N  64.5W    75 KTS
 
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