HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL STORM JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE OCT 19 1999
 
JOSE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING WITH COLDER TOPS AND
INCREASED BANDING AROUND THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 55 KT...WHICH WILL BE THE
INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS PACKAGE.

ALTHOUGH THE CENTER SEEMS TO HAVE JUMPED AROUND SOME DURING THE
NIGHT...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 300/11. JOSE IS SOUTH OF
A LARGE RIDGE COVERING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LARGE SCALE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE RIDGE SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT THREE
DAYS..WHICH SUGGESTS A CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT WEST-NORTHWEST
MOTION. NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
SCENARIO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
GFDL...WHICH TURNS THE CYCLONE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER 48
HOURS...AND THE UKMET...WHICH TRACKS JOSE WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS
PUERTO RICO.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN ANTICYCLONE OVER JOSE...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE AVN...UKMET...AND NOGAPS ALL
FORECAST THIS ANTICYCLONE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH THE STORM...
WHICH COULD ALLOW IT TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE. HOWEVER...
THESE MODELS ALSO INDICATED SUCH AN ANTICYCLONE WOULD DEVELOP OVER
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE...AND THAT FORECAST WAS A TOTAL BUST. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR MORE STRENGTHENING THAN THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE...BUT NOT TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS. IT IS NOTABLE THAT THE
SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS SIGNIFICANT SHEAR OVER JOSE AND ONLY BRINGS
IT TO 83 KT IN 72 HOURS.
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN REVISED BASED ON THE MOTION AND
CURRENT FORECASTS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES FOR THE U.S. AND BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.
 
ALL LARGE SCALE GUIDANCE DEVELOPS A LARGE DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. BY 24 OCTOBER. SHOULD THIS AND THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR
JOSE VERIFY...A NORTHWARD TURN COULD OCCUR AFTER 72 HR. STAY TUNED.

BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     19/0900Z 13.8N  57.5W    55 KTS
12HR VT     19/1800Z 14.8N  59.1W    65 KTS
24HR VT     20/0600Z 16.0N  61.0W    75 KTS
36HR VT     20/1800Z 17.2N  63.0W    85 KTS
48HR VT     21/0600Z 18.5N  65.0W    90 KTS
72HR VT     22/0600Z 20.5N  68.5W    95 KTS
 
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