HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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HURRICANE JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE OCT 19 1999
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH JOSE CONTINUES TO IMPROVE IN
ORGANIZATION WITH GOOD BANDING FEATURES AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW.  T-
NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. 
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FOUND FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 73 KNOTS ON A SMALL
AREA TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THEREFORE...JOSE IS BEING
UPGRADED TO HURRICANE STATUS AT THIS TIME AND BECAUSE AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE WITH THE HURRICANE...FURTHER
STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED.  

INITIAL MOTION IS 300/11.  A PERSISTENT STRONG 500 MB RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF JOSE SHOULD PROVIDE A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST STEERING
DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS AND THIS IS THE GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE
MODELS.  ONLY THE GFDL TURNS THE HURRICANE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST
BEYOND 48 HOURS.   ON A LONGER RANGE...A LARGE UPPER-TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THIS TROUGH SHOULD
INDUCE A NORTHERLY TRACK BEYOND THREE DAYS.

AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     19/1500Z 14.3N  58.5W    65 KTS
12HR VT     20/0000Z 15.0N  60.0W    70 KTS
24HR VT     20/1200Z 16.2N  61.8W    75 KTS
36HR VT     21/0000Z 17.5N  64.0W    85 KTS
48HR VT     21/1200Z 18.5N  66.0W    95 KTS
72HR VT     22/1200Z 21.5N  70.0W    95 KTS
 
 
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