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HURRICANE JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED OCT 20 1999
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND HURRICANE HUNTER DATA INDICATE STRENGTHENING
OVERNIGHT. THE LAST REPORTED MINIMUM PRESSURE WAS 980 MB...AND THE
MAXIMUM 850 MB WINDS WERE 99 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES VERY
COLD CLOUD TOPS TO -85C AND THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A 30 NM WIDE EYE
OPEN TO THE SOUTH. THIS INTENSIFICATION OCCURRED DESPITE RESTRICTED
OUTFLOW OR POSSIBLE SHEAR ON THE WEST SIDE ON THE DEEP CONVECTION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 80 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/10. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A
MID/UPPER LEVEL VORTEX NEAR 25N66W THAT MAY BE WEAKENING THE RIDGE
NORTH OF JOSE AND ALLOWING A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. HOWEVER...THE
VORTEX IS MOVING WESTWARD...WHICH LEAVES OPEN THE POSSIBILITY OF
JOSE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY. A GENERAL NORTHWEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH 48 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A
MORE NORTHERLY MOTION AS A LARGE DEEP LAYER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. AFFECTS JOSE. ALL LARGE SCALE AND HURRICANE
GUIDANCE AGREES ON THIS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED
SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT IS ALONG THE
LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. IT IS ALSO SLOWER THAN MUCH OF
THE GUIDANCE AT 72 HOURS...AS THE VARIOUS BAM MODELS...NOGAPS...
GFDN...AND UKMET FORECAST JOSE NORTH OF 28N BY THAT TIME.
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS STILL SOMEWHAT OF A PARADOX. WHILE THE AVN
AND NOGAPS CONTINUE TO MOVE AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NORTHWEST
WITH THE HURRICANE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF JOSE. THESE WIND MAXIMA OFTEN DO NOT WEAKEN AS
FAST AS THE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST. THERE ARE ALSO THE FACTORS THAT
JOSE IS STEADILY INTENSIFYING AT THIS TIME...AND THAT THE SHIPS
MODEL WEAKENS THE SYSTEM AFTER 48 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
SLOWS THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION AFTER 12 HOURS AND PEAKS THE STORM
AT 100 KT IN 36 HOURS. SHOULD THE SHEAR DECREASE OR STAY AT CURRENT
VALUES...JOSE COULD GET MUCH STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
 
THE 64 KT AND 50 KT WIND RADII ARE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE
AIRCRAFT DATA. THE 34 KT WIND RADII ARE UNCHANGED...AND ARE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH A 0245Z ERS-2 SCATTEROMETER OVERPASS AND A
07Z DRIFTING BUOY OBSERVATION.

BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/0900Z 16.7N  60.7W    80 KTS
12HR VT     20/1800Z 17.6N  62.0W    90 KTS
24HR VT     21/0600Z 18.8N  63.8W    95 KTS
36HR VT     21/1800Z 20.0N  65.3W   100 KTS
48HR VT     22/0600Z 21.5N  66.5W   100 KTS
72HR VT     23/0600Z 25.5N  68.5W   100 KTS
 
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