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HURRICANE JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED OCT 20 1999
 
WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND RAOBS SHOW AN UPPER-TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE
ATLANTIC.  THIS TROUGH COULD INFLUENCE BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY OF
JOSE.  FOR INTENSITY...THE TROUGH COULD INCREASE THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE HURRICANE...INDUCING SOME SHEAR.  THIS MAY RESULT IN
AN ENVIRONMENT NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR FUTURE STRENGTHENING AS
INDICATED BY MODELS...WHICH DEVELOP A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER
THE HURRICANE.  HOWEVER....JOSE IS INTENSIFYING AT THIS TIME. LATEST
INFORMATION FROM THE RECON INDICATE THAT THE PRESSURE WAS 978 MB...
DOWN FROM 983 MB EARLIER THIS MORNING.  A DROPSONDE MEASURED MAX
WINDS OF 111 KNOTS AT THE 964-MB LEVEL AND 85 KNOTS NEAR THE
SURFACE.
 
FOR TRACK...THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH ABOVE 400 MB COULD MEAN THAT
THE HIGH TO THE NORTH IS NOT AS STRONG AS SUGGESTED BY MODELS. THIS
COULD RESULT IN A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK.  IN FACT...THE MODELS ARE
ALREADY CHANGING THEIR TUNE AND TURN JOSE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
QUICKER THAN IN YESTERDAY RUNS. IF THIS TREND TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTH NOW INDICATED BY THE ALL MODELS BEGINS DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WARNINGS FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL BE
RE-EVALUATED.
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/1500Z 17.1N  61.5W    85 KTS
12HR VT     21/0000Z 17.9N  62.8W    90 KTS
24HR VT     21/1200Z 19.5N  64.5W    95 KTS
36HR VT     22/0000Z 21.0N  66.0W    95 KTS
48HR VT     22/1200Z 23.5N  67.0W    95 KTS
72HR VT     23/1200Z 30.0N  67.0W    95 KTS
 
 
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