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HURRICANE JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED OCT 20 1999
 
LATEST RECON REPORT SUGGESTS THAT THE STRUCTURE OF THE INNER CORE
OF HURRICANE JOSE MIGHT HAVE BEEN DISRUPTED SOME WHILE CROSSING
ANTIGUA.  HOWEVER...THIS MAY BE TEMPORARY AND THE EYE COULD
REORGANIZE OVER OPEN WATER.  THE CLOUD PATTERN FROM SATELLITE
CONTINUES WELL ORGANIZED WITH GOOD OUTFLOW AND DEEP CONVECTION.
T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB AND KGWC REMAIN AT 5.0 ON THE DVORAK
SCALE.   SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY WHILE JOSE IS
INTERACTING WITH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.  

THEREAFTER...WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW AN UPPER-TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN BAHAMAS AND
THE ATLANTIC.  THIS TROUGH COULD INFLUENCE BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF JOSE.  FOR INTENSITY...THE TROUGH COULD INCREASE THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE HURRICANE...INDUCING SOME SHEAR.  THIS
MAY RESULT IN AN ENVIRONMENT NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR FUTURE
STRENGTHENING AS INDICATED BY MODELS...WHICH DEVELOP A STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE HURRICANE.  ONLY A MODEST INTENSIFICATION
IS INDICATED.
 
FOR TRACK...THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH ABOVE 400 MB COULD MEAN THAT
THE HIGH TO THE NORTH IS NOT AS STRONG AS SUGGESTED BY MODELS. THIS
COULD RESULT IN A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK AND INDEED...MODELS ARE
TURNING JOSE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH QUICKER THAN IN YESTERDAY
RUNS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE UK MODEL...
BRINGS JOSE TO THE NORTH BUT NOT FAR FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO.   BECAUSE THIS DISTANCE IS WITHIN THE AVERAGE RANGE OF
24-H FORECAST ERRORS...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS ARE MAINTAINED AT THIS TIME. 

A NEW RECON IS SCHEDULED TO BE IN THE AREA SHORTLY.
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/2100Z 17.5N  62.4W    85 KTS
12HR VT     21/0600Z 18.3N  63.6W    90 KTS
24HR VT     21/1800Z 19.5N  65.2W    95 KTS
36HR VT     22/0600Z 21.5N  66.5W    95 KTS
48HR VT     22/1800Z 23.5N  67.0W    95 KTS
72HR VT     23/1800Z 31.5N  66.5W    95 KTS
 
 
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