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HURRICANE JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED OCT 20 1999
 
THE LATEST REPORT RECEIVED FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT JOSE IS MOVING A TAD TO THE LEFT
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW
300/9 KT.  THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING REGARDING
THE TRACK FORECAST WITH A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION
THROUGH 24 HRS.  THEREAFTER...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE BENDS TO NORTH...
THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATES AS A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE U.K. METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE AND THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL
OUTPUT.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT JOSE WILL BE CLOSE TO
MERGING WITH A FRONTAL CYCLONE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...
SO JOSE MAY BE LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY THAT TIME. 
 
THERE WAS A RECENT DROPSONDE MEASUREMENT OF 994 MB SURFACE PRESSURE
BY THE HURRICANE HUNTERS.  HOWEVER...THE SURFACE WINDS ON THE DROP
INDICATE THAT IT WAS NOT IN THE CENTER SO THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
PRESSURE IS KEPT AT 990 MB.  THE CLOUD PATTERN SEEN IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A CDO WITH VERY DEEP CONVECTION...TOPS TO -85C...WHICH HAS
BEEN EXPANDING DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.  IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND
THIS IS CONFIRMED IN SYNOPTIC FLOW DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NOAA G-IV
AIRCRAFT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 85 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY WHILE JOSE IS
INTERACTING WITH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE FORECAST STILL ALLOWS FOR
SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING THROUGH 36 HRS.  THIS PRESUMES THAT THE
SHEAR DOES NOT BECOME PROHIBITIVELY STRONG.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK SHOWS THE CENTER PASSING NORTH AND EAST
OF PUERTO RICO IN 12-24 HOURS.  ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THIS PRECISE
TRACK BECAUSE OF THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES.  THE LONG-TERM AVERAGE
TRACK FORECAST ERROR IS CLOSE TO 100 STATUTE MILES AT 24 HOURS.

GUINEY/PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/0300Z 17.8N  63.0W    85 KTS
12HR VT     21/1200Z 18.4N  64.1W    90 KTS
24HR VT     22/0000Z 19.7N  65.5W    95 KTS
36HR VT     22/1200Z 21.6N  66.7W    95 KTS
48HR VT     23/0000Z 25.0N  67.0W    80 KTS
72HR VT     24/0000Z 36.0N  62.5W    70 KTS
 
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