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TROPICAL STORM JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI OCT 22 1999
 
HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THAT JOSE IS A SHEARED
SYSTEM WITH REJUVENATING CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE EXPOSED BUT
TIGHT CENTER.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS NEVER RELAXED AS EXPECTED OR
FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS.  HOWEVER...IF JOSE BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD
THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST WOULD RESULT IN A DECREASE OF THE
SHEAR.  JOSE COULD THEN RESTRENGTHEN BEFORE BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
IN 72 HOURS OR LESS.
 
JOSE HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE
APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH NORTH AND
NORTHEASTWARD STEERING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MOST OF THE TRACK
MODELS CLEARLY CAPTURE THE EFFECTS OF THE TROUGH AND MOVE JOSE
RAPIDLY NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST...PRIMARILY BEYOND 36 HOURS.  ON
THIS TRACK...JOSE SHOULD PASS EAST OF BERMUDA...BUT INTERESTS IN
BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOSE UNTIL THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST MOTION MATERIALIZES.
 
A FEEDER BAND ASSOCIATED WITH JOSE IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND SQUALLS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/1500Z 20.2N  66.0W    55 KTS
12HR VT     23/0000Z 21.0N  66.4W    55 KTS
24HR VT     23/1200Z 25.0N  65.5W    65 KTS
36HR VT     24/0000Z 30.0N  63.0W    65 KTS
48HR VT     24/1200Z 37.0N  58.0W    65 KTS
72HR VT     25/1200Z 51.0N  45.0W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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