HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL STORM JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT OCT 23 1999
 
ALTHOUGH JOSE REMAINS A SHEARED SYSTEM...THERE IS ENOUGH CIRRUS
EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE CONVECTION TO OBSCURE THE LOW LEVEL
CENTER. THIS MAKES THE INITIAL MOTION RATHER UNCERTAIN...BUT THE
BEST ESTIMATE IS STILL 025/13. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING
FROM THE PAST FEW ADVISORIES...AS JOSE SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD IN FRONT OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC UNTIL IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...AFWA...AND SAB REMAIN 55
KT...55 KT...AND 45 KT RESPECTIVELY...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 50 KT. WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS UPPER LEVEL
DIFLUENCE IS INCREASING OVER JOSE...THE DEEP CONVECTION IS POORLY
ENOUGH ORGANIZED THAT STRENGTHENING IS UNLIKELY BEFORE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION IN 36 HOURS.

THE FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED IN COORDINATION WITH THE
MARINE PREDICTION CENTER.
 
BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/0300Z 27.0N  62.9W    50 KTS
12HR VT     24/1200Z 30.0N  61.5W    50 KTS
24HR VT     25/0000Z 35.1N  58.7W    50 KTS
36HR VT     25/1200Z 43.0N  53.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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